The latest US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) 'World Threat Assessment' report for 2025 provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolving security dynamics in South Asia, particularly focusing on the trilateral relationship between India, China, and Pakistan.

The report underscores that Pakistan continues to view India as an "existential threat" and is determined to modernise its military, including the development of battlefield or tactical nuclear weapons, to offset India's conventional military superiority. Pakistan's military priorities remain centred on cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours, counterterrorism efforts, and nuclear modernisation.

The report also highlights that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal modernisation is heavily supported by foreign suppliers, with China being the primary source of economic and military assistance. Pakistani forces regularly conduct joint military exercises with the Chinese People's Liberation Army, and much of the technology and material for Pakistan's weapons of mass destruction programs are believed to be acquired from China, sometimes transhipped through third countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the UAE.

In contrast, India now considers China its primary adversary, with Pakistan relegated to an ancillary security issue to be managed, despite periodic cross-border attacks and recent military clashes. The DIA notes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's defence priorities are likely to focus on demonstrating global leadership, countering China, and enhancing India's military power. India's recent actions, such as Operation Sindoor—targeted airstrikes on terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan—demonstrate New Delhi's willingness to respond forcefully to provocations, but the broader strategic focus remains on the challenge posed by China. India is also prioritising the strengthening of defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean Region and Indo-Pacific, aiming to counter Chinese influence and boost its global standing. This includes advancing bilateral, trilateral, and quadrilateral defence partnerships, as well as promoting domestic defence manufacturing through the 'Made in India' initiative.

The report further details the nuclear balance in the region, noting that both India and Pakistan possess approximately 170 nuclear warheads each. Pakistan frequently brandishes its short-range Nasr (Hatf-IX) and other missiles as a counter to India's conventional superiority.

Meanwhile, China has significantly expanded its nuclear arsenal, with estimates suggesting it now possesses over 600 operational warheads and is projected to exceed 1,000 by 2030, many at higher readiness levels.

Recent military incidents, such as the Indian strikes on Pakistani airbases in May 2025 and the subsequent escalation, are cited as examples of the volatility in the region. However, the report emphasises that India's strategic calculus is increasingly dominated by the China threat, with Pakistan viewed as a persistent but secondary security concern. The ongoing military modernisation efforts by all three countries, coupled with deep-rooted mistrust and the risk of rapid escalation—especially along the India-China Line of Actual Control—continue to shape the security environment in South Asia.

The US intelligence assessment reflects a significant shift in India's strategic priorities: China is now regarded as India's main rival, while Pakistan is considered an ancillary security issue, even as Islamabad continues to modernise its military with substantial Chinese support and maintains a posture of existential deterrence against New Delhi.

Agencies