Pakistan endured its most lethal year in a decade during 2025, with insurgent violence claiming 3,967 lives across the nation, reported Bloomberg.

This marked the highest toll since 2015, according to data from the South Asian Terrorism Portal. At least 1,070 violent incidents, encompassing bomb blasts, gun battles, airstrikes, and suicide bombings, unfolded by 27 December.

The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emerged as the primary perpetrator, aligning closely with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Pakistani authorities repeatedly accused Kabul of sheltering TTP leaders and facilitating their operations. A notable example was a suicide bombing in North Waziristan that killed seven soldiers at a military compound in the autumn.

Kabul countered by denying these allegations, asserting that it prevents Afghans from crossing borders to fight abroad. The Afghan Taliban attributed the TTP's origins to Pakistan's earlier support for US-led operations and drone strikes in tribal regions from 2002. Tensions boiled over into mutual accusations of cross-border aggression, including Pakistani airstrikes in north-eastern Afghanistan that reportedly killed civilians—a charge Islamabad rejected.

Diplomatic initiatives faltered amid escalating hostilities. Turkey and Qatar attempted to mediate talks in late November, but these collapsed swiftly. Tit-for-tat border skirmishes persisted into December, exacerbating bilateral friction that has eroded steadily since the Taliban's 2021 takeover in Kabul.

Islamabad initially supported the Taliban's return, anticipating it would curb TTP activities within Pakistan. Instead, the group gained momentum, intensifying its insurgency in tribal areas. Relations soured as the TTP shifted goals from retaliating against Pakistan's US alliance to seeking the overthrow of the Pakistani state and imposition of strict Islamic law.

The TTP rejects the Durand Line, the colonial-era border dividing Pashtun territories between Pakistan and Afghanistan—a view echoed by the Afghan Taliban. This ideological alignment fuels cross-border militancy. Pakistan now ranks as the world's second most terrorism-affected nation per the global terrorism index.

TTP fighters, estimated at around 8,500 by security analyst Iftikhar Firdous of the Khorasan Diary, exploit the porous frontier. Their arsenal has advanced, incorporating drones, US-made sniper rifles, and night-vision goggles scavenged from abandoned American stockpiles in Afghanistan. Leadership largely operates from Afghan soil.

For the Afghan Taliban, suppressing the TTP poses domestic perils. Such action risks splintering militant networks, potentially pushing fighters towards rivals like Islamic State or Al Qaeda, both eager for recruits. This dilemma strains Kabul's ties with Pakistan, a vital trade partner and transit hub.

Economic repercussions mounted rapidly. Border closures and clashes disrupted commerce, fuelling inflation in Pakistan. Exports to Afghanistan plummeted from $115 million in November 2024 to just $9.54 million the following November, per State Bank of Pakistan figures. Hundreds of cargo trucks languish stranded on either side.

Civilians suffered acutely, particularly Afghan refugees. Pakistan hosts nearly two million, many fleeing prior conflicts. In recent months, Islamabad deported tens of thousands deemed illegal, framing it as essential to dismantle militant networks.

Pakistan's domestic landscape amplified the crisis. Under Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, military influence has surged, side-lining civilian diplomacy. Lahore-based analyst Rashid Ahmad Khan warned that entrusting the anti-terrorism fight solely to generals, without political involvement, dooms prospects for victory.

The Afghan Taliban refuses to label the TTP fighters as terrorists, complicating resolution. Khan described the standoff as profoundly intricate, with no swift solution in sight. TTP's evolution underscores a broader shift in regional militancy.

Pakistan's apprehensions extend to India. Islamabad frequently alleges New Delhi supports the TTP covertly. Meanwhile, India-Afghan Taliban relations are thawing, with discussions underway for trade corridors bypassing Pakistan entirely.

This convergence of internal insurgency, border animosities, and geopolitical rivalries rendered 2025 a pivotal year of turmoil for Pakistan. Violence not only strained resources but reshaped strategic priorities amid fragile regional equilibria.

Bloomberg