by Udit Dobhal

The escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict is engulfing the Gulf region, inflicting severe economic burdens on global markets. Oil prices have surged, supply chains falter, and nations scramble to secure energy lifelines. Yet amid the chaos, a pivotal question emerges: how long can this war endure?

No precise timeline exists. Wars of attrition, however, hinge on endurance—the ability to outlast one's adversary in munitions and resources. Here, Western and Gulf powers face a stark vulnerability.

Iran recognises its technological inferiority to US and Israeli systems. Precision-guided munitions and advanced fighters dominate the skies, yet inventories are finite. Tehran has pivoted to asymmetric warfare, leveraging cheap, mass-producible weapons.

Enter the Shahed-136 drone, Iran's reliable workhorse. This loitering munition costs mere thousands to build, deploys in swarms, and overwhelms defences through sheer volume. Paired with basic cruise missiles, it disrupts without matching high-end tech.

Consider Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, a cornerstone of global oil output at 550,000 barrels daily, yielding around £36 million in revenue. Safeguarded by the elite Patriot system, it exemplifies Gulf vulnerabilities.

A Patriot battery holds about 100 interceptors, each priced at £3.2 million. Protocols demand two missiles per threat for reliable kills, amplifying costs exponentially. Now the asymmetry: one Shahed-136 costs roughly £16,000. A salvo of 100 drones totals £1.6 million. Countering them requires 200 Patriots—£640 million expended.

This imbalance is not theoretical. Depleted stocks erode defensive postures, inviting catastrophe. A follow-on wave could cripple refineries, spike prices, and fracture alliances. The pattern repeats across the Gulf. From Bahrain's ports to UAE oilfields, drone barrages strain US-supplied shields like THAAD and Aegis. Stockpiles dwindle under sustained pressure.

Replenishment lags critically. US production of Patriot PAC-3 missiles runs at dozens monthly, constrained by complex supply chains. Iran, by contrast, churns out Shaheds in the hundreds via simplified factories, even in dispersed sites.

Allies amplify the strain. Israel’s Arrow and David’s Sling systems, potent against ballistics, guzzle interceptors against drone floods. Gulf states, reliant on imports, face delays in surging output.

Logistics compound the issue. Shipping munitions across oceans invites interdiction, while Iran's proxies—Houthis, Hezbollah—extend the battlefield, forcing multi-front defences.

Economic resilience tips the scales. Sanctions hobble Iran, yet its drone programme thrives on smuggling and domestic ingenuity. Western economies, though vast, grapple with industrial base atrophy post-Cold War.

Historical precedents warn of this dynamic. In Ukraine, Russian drone attrition has bled NATO stocks dry. The Gulf mirrors this: quantity erodes quality over time.

Technological counters evolve—laser weapons, electronic warfare—but scaling them demands years. Meanwhile, Iran's tactics adapt, incorporating decoys and saturation strikes. Gulf monarchies, energy-dependent, cannot sustain indefinite defence. Blackouts, fuel shortages, and panic ensue if protections fail. Global repercussions cascade: recessions, inflation, migration waves.

Western resolve may waver under domestic scrutiny. Ballooning costs fuel political backlash, echoing Vietnam's quagmire. Iran, battle-hardened, endures via ideology and low overheads.

Victory in attrition pivots on factories, not frontlines. Iran's edge lies in rapid iteration; the West's in innovation—if mobilised swiftly.

Rebuilding arsenals demands trillions and political will. Initiatives like US industrial surges show promise, yet timelines stretch into years. Diplomatic off-ramps flicker dimly amid escalations. Ceasefires crumble under mutual distrust, perpetuating the grind.

Ultimately, endurance dictates outcome. The side exhausting last claims advantage, but prolonged strife risks mutual ruin. Death tolls mount, economies fracture, environments scar. Strategic "wins" mask pyrrhic tolls—true victors may prove elusive.

Only vigilance on manufacturing might averts collapse. Time, inexorably, reveals the ledger.

Udit Dobhal writes on national security, military technology, strategic affairs & policies. This essay reflects author's opinions alone