The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has unveiled its latest report, ‘Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2025’, revealing significant shifts in global arms trade dynamics for the 2021-2025 period. India has ascended to the world’s second-largest arms importer, capturing 8.3 per cent of global imports. This positions it just behind Ukraine, which leads with 9.7 per cent amid its ongoing conflict with Russia.

A silver lining emerges in India’s data: arms imports declined by 4.0 per cent compared to the 2016-2020 period. SIPRI attributes this dip partly to India’s expanding indigenous capabilities in designing and producing weapons. Yet, the institute cautions that persistent delays in domestic manufacturing programs temper these gains.

Despite progress, India’s procurement pipeline signals sustained foreign dependence. Recent and planned orders include up to 140 combat aircraft from France and six submarines from Germany. These commitments underscore a reluctance—or inability—to fully pivot away from overseas suppliers in critical domains.

Russia remains India’s top supplier, but its dominance is waning. Its share of Indian imports fell from 70 per cent in 2011-2015, to 51 per cent in 2016-2020, and further to 40 per cent in 2021-2025. France has surged ahead as the second-largest provider at 29 per cent, with Israel close behind at 15 per cent.

This diversification reflects a broader strategic realignment over the past decade. India has steadily shifted from Russian hardware towards Western and Israeli alternatives, including growing ties with France, Israel, and the United States. Such moves align with interoperability needs for multinational exercises and sanctions-resilient supply chains.

Geopolitical tensions fuel India’s import appetite. Border standoffs with China along the Line of Actual Control, coupled with skirmishes against Pakistan, drive demand for advanced systems. The report specifically cites the brief armed clash between India and Pakistan in May 2025, where both sides deployed imported major arms platforms.

Pakistan ranks fifth globally, with 4.2 per cent of imports—a sharp 66 per cent rise from 2016-2020. China dominates as its primary supplier, providing 80 per cent of weaponry. Turkey and the Netherlands follow as secondary sources, highlighting Islamabad’s broadening supplier base amid regional rivalries.

Globally, arms transfers reached their highest volume since 2011-2015. The United States solidified its primacy, exporting 42 per cent of major arms—up from 36 per cent previously—to 99 recipient states across every continent. Europe (35 states), the Americas (18), Africa (17), Asia and Oceania (17), and the Middle East (12) all benefited from this expansive outreach.

France climbed to second place with 9.8 per cent of exports, buoyed by deals like those with India. Russia held third, while Germany eclipsed China for fourth. This European resurgence contrasts with China’s relative decline, amid tighter export controls and domestic priorities.

For India, the report paints a nuanced picture of self-reliance efforts clashing with operational urgencies. Programmes like Tejas fighters and BrahMos missiles show promise, but scale-up delays leave gaps filled by imports. As tensions with China and Pakistan persist, balancing Atmanirbharta (self-reliance) with timely acquisitions will define future trends.

SIPRI’s data arrives at a pivotal moment for Indian defence policy. With the 2025 India-Pakistan flare-up fresh in memory, New Delhi faces pressure to accelerate indigenous production while hedging against supplier risks. The report’s trends suggest imports may stabilise or rise unless domestic timelines compress dramatically.

Agencies