Tensions between India and Pakistan have sharply escalated following the recent terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 people, including Indian tourists and a Nepali national.

In response, India has announced a series of stringent measures, most notably the temporary suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank in 1960.

The IWT has long served as a stabilizing mechanism in the fraught relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, governing the distribution of water from the six-river Indus basin—a resource crucial to Pakistan’s agrarian economy.

Under the treaty, India has control over the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi), while Pakistan receives the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). While India is permitted limited non-consumptive use of the western rivers, the treaty does not allow for unilateral suspension or diversion of flows.

India’s announcement to suspend its commitments under the IWT has been interpreted in Islamabad as a grave provocation. Pakistan’s government, following a rare National Security Committee meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, issued a stern warning: any attempt by India to block or divert the Indus river supply would be considered an “act of war” and would be met with a response across the full spectrum of national power.

The diplomatic fallout has been immediate and severe. India has downgraded diplomatic ties, expelled Pakistani military attachés, revoked all valid visas for Pakistani citizens (with limited exceptions for medical cases), and suspended operations at key border crossings such as Attari. In retaliation, Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian aircraft, shut the Wagah border crossing, suspended the Simla Agreement, and ordered Indian defence advisors to leave the country by April 30, 2025. All visas issued to Indian nationals under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme have been cancelled, except for Sikh religious pilgrims, who have been given a 48-hour deadline to leave Pakistan.

Treaty Structure And Immediate Implications

The IWT allocates the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) exclusively to India and the western rivers to Pakistan, permitting India limited non-consumptive use for hydroelectric projects. By suspending the treaty, India gains unilateral control over water management in the Indus basin, enabling projects like reservoir construction and flood management without prior Pakistani approval. However, the suspension stops short of termination—a strategic choice to avoid formal withdrawal, which would require navigating the treaty’s dispute-resolution mechanisms.

Impact On Pakistan

Pakistan faces acute risks due to its water-stressed status and reliance on the Indus system:

Agriculture: Approximately 16 million hectares of farmland depend on Indus waters, with wheat, rice, and cotton crops vulnerable to reduced flows.

Urban Water Supply: Major cities like Karachi and Lahore could experience shortages, potentially triggering civil unrest.

Hydropower: Disruptions may affect electricity generation, compounding existing energy crises.

Challenges For India

Despite the suspension, India’s ability to leverage the western rivers remains constrained by infrastructure gaps. While India utilises 95% of its eastern river allocation, projects on the western rivers (e.g., hydroelectric dams) are underdeveloped. Experts emphasise that significant benefits will materialise only after accelerating infrastructure projects, which could take decades. For instance, 2 million acre-feet of Ravi River water still flows unused to Pakistan annually, though India is implementing measures to capture this.

Legal and Diplomatic Considerations

The treaty lacks provisions for unilateral suspension, raising questions about its legal validity under international law. While India frames the move as a security imperative, Pakistan may escalate the matter to the World Bank or international courts. Additionally, India’s decision to cease sharing flood data with Pakistan could worsen monsoon-related disasters, further straining relations.

India’s suspension of the IWT represents a calculated gamble to pressure Pakistan on terrorism while asserting hydrological control. The immediate symbolic impact outweighs practical effects due to infrastructure limitations, but long-term consequences for regional water security and bilateral relations remain profound. Success hinges on India’s ability to expedite river development projects and navigate the geopolitical fallout from redefining a seven-decade-old agreement.

Legal and water policy experts warn that if India were to act on its threat to block or divert the Indus river supply, it could have catastrophic consequences for Pakistan, especially during critical cropping periods.

However, analysts also note that India currently lacks the infrastructure to fully exploit or divert the western rivers, meaning any substantial change to the water flow would likely take years or even decades to implement. Nonetheless, the mere suspension of the treaty and the accompanying rhetoric have drastically heightened the risk of conflict, with Pakistan vowing to respond with full force to any perceived aggression.

The Indus Waters Treaty, despite surviving previous wars and numerous diplomatic crises, now faces its most serious challenge. The current standoff underscores the treaty’s centrality to regional stability and the grave risks posed by its potential unravelling.

Agencies