The killing of 26 people, predominantly tourists, in a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, has triggered a severe escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan, raising fears of military confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

India swiftly accused Pakistan-based militants of orchestrating the attack, prompting retaliatory measures such as suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and revoking visas for Pakistani nationals. Prime Minister Narendra Modi granted India’s military “complete operational freedom” to determine the timing, targets, and mode of response, signalling a potential shift toward cross-border military action.

Pakistan, while denying involvement, retaliated by suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement, closing airspace and trade routes to India, and expelling Indian diplomats. Islamabad claimed to possess “credible intelligence” indicating an imminent Indian military strike within 24–36 hours, vowing to respond “decisively” to any provocation.

Amid rising alarm, Pakistan’s Ambassador to the U.S., Rizwan Saeed Sheikh, urgently appealed to President Donald Trump to mediate, describing Kashmir as the “flashiest nuclear flashpoint” and emphasising the risk of escalation involving nuclear-capable states like China, India, and Pakistan. Sheikh advocated for a sustained U.S. initiative to address the Kashmir dispute comprehensively, rather than temporary de-escalation. Concurrently, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari called for international intervention to avert conflict.

Armed clashes erupted along the Line of Control (LoC) starting April 24, with both sides reporting unprovoked gunfire and drone incursions. India demolished homes of suspected militants in Pulwama and Kulgam, while Pakistan deployed heavy artillery, including M110 systems, to the Leepa Valley. Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh vowed to target not only the attackers but also their “backers,” hinting at potential strikes inside Pakistan. Pakistani officials, meanwhile, framed India’s suspension of water-sharing treaties as an “act of war,” further inflaming rhetoric.

The U.S. and U.N. intensified diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held separate calls with Indian and Pakistani officials, urging restraint. U.S. Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth expressed solidarity with India, affirming its right to self-defence while cautioning against unchecked retaliation. However, global powers largely remained preoccupied with other crises, reducing external pressure on India to moderate its response. China, a key Pakistani ally, offered diplomatic support to Islamabad but simultaneously urged restraint from both sides, reflecting a cautious balancing act.

The suspension of foundational agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty and Simla Agreement marks an unprecedented breakdown in bilateral frameworks, exacerbating regional instability. Analysts warn that India’s pursuit of a “spectacular” retaliatory strike risks triggering a tit-for-tat cycle, though some predict the crisis may remain within the bounds of “managed hostility” seen in past confrontations. The involvement of nuclear-capable states and Pakistan’s efforts to internationalise Kashmir underscore the high stakes, with the potential for miscalculation posing a grave threat to regional security.

As diplomatic channels strain under the weight of mutual accusations and military posturing, the international community faces mounting pressure to broker durable solutions rather than temporary ceasefires, lest the cycle of violence persist.