The departure of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh has significantly altered the political landscape, creating new tensions with India, according to South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman.

In a recent interview with ANI on 1 January 2026, Kugelman highlighted how her exile in India remains a flashpoint for Dhaka's interim government and public sentiment.

Sheikh Hasina, the former Prime Minister, fled Bangladesh on 5 August 2024 amid widespread protests that led to her ousting. Her presence in New Delhi continues to irk Bangladeshi authorities and citizens, exacerbating bilateral strains despite ongoing diplomatic engagements.

Kugelman noted that Hasina's exit has ushered in political shifts, providing greater space for religious hardliners in Bangladesh. These groups, often critical or outright hostile towards India, have gained influence, complicating relations between the two neighbours.

This dynamic has not resulted in a complete freeze, unlike the longstanding India-Pakistan impasse. However, Indian policymakers appear cautious, preferring to await Bangladesh's next elections before pursuing robust efforts to mend ties.

Recent violence against religious minorities in Bangladesh underscores these concerns. A Hindu garment factory security guard, Bajendra Biswas, aged 42, was shot dead on factory premises by a colleague wielding a government-issued shotgun. The accused, Noman Mia, 29, also served as an Ansar member at the site.

In a separate incident in Mymensingh, 27-year-old Hindu youth Dipu Chandra Das was beaten to death by a mob on 18 December over alleged blasphemy. His body was then set ablaze, drawing international outrage and highlighting vulnerabilities faced by minorities.

India has voiced strong apprehensions over these attacks targeting Hindus, Christians, and Buddhists. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is monitoring the situation closely, with spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal expressing disturbance at the persistent hostility.

Jaiswal condemned the Mymensingh killing outright, urging Bangladesh to ensure justice for the perpetrators. This reflects New Delhi's broader worries about minority safety amid the power vacuum left by Hasina's regime.

Kugelman's analysis points to unresolved issues—Hasina's asylum and the rise of hardliners—as primary barriers to normalisation. Bangladesh's interim administration views her sheltering in India as provocative, fuelling anti-India rhetoric.

The analyst's observations align with reports of increased Islamist activities post-Hasina. Groups opposed to her secular Awami League government have mobilised, leveraging public discontent to push agendas inimical to Indian interests.

India's restrained approach stems from strategic prudence. With Bangladesh's elections on the horizon, New Delhi anticipates a more stable interlocutor, potentially open to resetting ties without the baggage of Hasina's tenure.

Violence against minorities has surged since August 2024, with temples vandalised and communities targeted. Human rights organisations document over 200 such incidents, many linked to radical elements exploiting transitional chaos.

The Biswas shooting in a factory setting raises alarms about internal security lapses. Ansar forces, meant to bolster national defence, appear compromised, as the weapon used was state-issued, prompting questions on oversight.

Dipu Chandra Das's lynching exemplifies mob justice under blasphemy pretexts, a pattern seen in neighbouring Pakistan. This has amplified calls from Indian civil society for robust intervention, though diplomatic channels remain primary.

MEA's statements signal quiet diplomacy alongside public condemnation. India has historically championed minority rights in Bangladesh, viewing them as integral to regional stability and its own security calculus.

Kugelman emphasised that while engagements persist—trade flows uninterrupted—deep mistrust lingers. Bangladesh's hardliners frame India as meddlesome, particularly over Hasina, hindering cooperative ventures like water-sharing or border management.

Prospects for improvement hinge on Dhaka's electoral outcomes. A moderate-led government could marginalise extremists, paving the way for India's outreach. Conversely, hardliner gains might prolong the chill.

India's concerns extend to strategic domains. Enhanced radical influence risks spillover effects, including militancy along the 4,096-km border, where smuggling and infiltration have long challenged security forces.

Economic interdependence offers a buffer. Bilateral trade exceeds $14 billion annually, with India as Bangladesh's second-largest partner. Yet, political frictions could disrupt infrastructure projects like the Akhaura-Agartala rail link.

Internationally, the US and others watch closely. Kugelman's think tank, the Wilson Center, underscores South Asia's volatility, where Bangladesh's trajectory impacts the Indo-Pacific balance.

Hasina's ouster stemmed from youth-led protests against authoritarianism and quotas, toppling her 15-year rule. The interim government under Muhammad Yunus struggles to consolidate, amid economic woes and radical undercurrents.

India supported Hasina for her pro-New Delhi stance, countering Chinese inroads via projects like Payra port. Her fall disrupts this equilibrium, forcing recalibration amid Beijing's overtures to Dhaka.

Minority persecution evokes 1971 memories, when India aided Bangladesh's birth amid Pakistani atrocities against Hindus. New Delhi invokes this legacy to press for protections, blending moral suasion with realpolitik.

As tensions simmer, both sides engage pragmatically. Recent flag meetings at borders and trade talks persist, but substantive resets await political clarity.

Kugelman's prognosis tempers optimism: ties are strained but salvageable post-elections. For India, safeguarding minorities and curbing hardliners remains paramount, lest Bangladesh drifts into instability threatening shared security.

This evolving scenario demands vigilant diplomacy from New Delhi, balancing patience with principled advocacy for regional harmony.

Based On ANI Report