Prime Minister Narendra Modi has extended warm congratulations to Tarique Rahman, the acting chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), after the party claimed a resounding victory in Bangladesh's parliamentary elections.

In a post on X, Modi hailed Rahman's leadership, noting that the result reflects the deep trust placed in him by the people of Bangladesh. This marks a pivotal moment in bilateral ties, with Modi pledging India's continued support for a democratic, progressive, and inclusive Bangladesh.

Final election results are yet to be officially declared from Dhaka, but early indications point to a decisive BNP mandate. Rahman, who has led the party from exile in London for much of the past decade, is positioned to assume the role of prime minister.

His return to frontline politics comes after years of legal battles and allegations levelled by the ousted Awami League government.

Modi's message underscores India's intent to reset relations with the incoming BNP administration. He expressed eagerness to collaborate on strengthening multifaceted ties and pursuing shared development objectives. 

This overture arrives against a backdrop of strained interactions under the interim leadership of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who assumed power following the dramatic ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024.

Hasina's exit, triggered by widespread student-led protests against her increasingly authoritarian rule, saw her flee to India, where she has since faced extradition demands from Dhaka. Her Awami League regime, long viewed as pro-India, fostered stability in areas like trade, connectivity, border management, and water-sharing pacts. Yet, it drew criticism for curbing opposition voices, including the BNP.

The period since Hasina's departure has witnessed a sharp deterioration in border security and internal stability in Bangladesh. Reports highlight a surge in illegal migration across the porous India-Bangladesh frontier, exacerbating political tensions in Indian states like West Bengal and Assam ahead of their assembly polls. Anti-Hindu incidents have also risen, fuelling concerns in New Delhi about minority protections.

India's historical experience with BNP governance adds layers of caution. During the party's 2001–2006 tenure, Bangladesh became a haven for cross-border insurgents targeting India's northeast. The infamous 2004 Chittagong arms haul—uncovering truckloads of Chinese weaponry destined for anti-India militants—remains a sore point, underscoring past lapses in counterterrorism cooperation.

Tarique Rahman, now 60, has sought to address these legacies. From his London base, he has advocated a 'reset' in India-Bangladesh relations, pledging robust anti-terrorism measures, resolution of the long-stalled Teesta river water-sharing dispute, and safeguards for Hindu minorities, who constitute about 8% of Bangladesh's population. His 'Bangladesh First' doctrine, however, signals a potential shift from the near-total strategic alignment seen under Hasina.

This doctrine prioritises national interests over external alignments, raising questions in New Delhi about the depth of future partnership. Rahman has criticised Hasina's India-centric policies as overly deferential, yet he has emphasised economic pragmatism, including enhanced trade and infrastructure links like the Akhaura-Agartala rail project.

Geopolitically, the BNP's victory could recalibrate South Asian dynamics. China, which expanded its footprint in Bangladesh under Hasina through Belt and Road projects, may seek to maintain influence. Pakistan, historically sympathetic to Islamist elements within the BNP, could exploit any anti-India rhetoric. India, meanwhile, views stable neighbourhood relations as vital to its 'Neighbourhood First' policy.

Modi's prompt congratulations suggest a pragmatic approach, prioritising engagement over past grievances. By framing the BNP win as a democratic endorsement, he positions India as a supportive partner in Bangladesh's transition. This could pave the way for high-level talks on pressing issues like border fencing, extradition of fugitives, and joint flood management.

Economic stakes are high. Bilateral trade exceeds $14 billion annually, with India as Bangladesh's second-largest trading partner. Key sectors include pharmaceuticals, textiles, and power supply from Indian plants to Bangladesh's grid. Resolving Teesta—where upstream Indian dams affect Bangladeshi farmlands—remains crucial for agrarian goodwill.

Minority rights will test the new government's credentials. Post-Hasina, attacks on Hindu temples and businesses have intensified, often linked to radical groups. Rahman's assurances of protection align with BNP's secular rhetoric, but implementation will be watched closely by New Delhi, home to millions of Bangladeshi-origin expatriates.

Domestically, the BNP's return ends a turbulent interim phase under Yunus, whose administration struggled with economic woes, including inflation and IMF-mandated reforms. Rahman inherits a nation grappling with youth unemployment—the spark of the 2024 uprising—and demands for accountable governance.

India's support could extend to capacity-building in defence and security, areas where DRDO and Indian firms have collaborated with Bangladesh. Joint exercises like 'Sampriti' have built military trust, potentially expandable under BNP rule if counterterrorism pledges hold.

As Rahman prepares to govern, Modi's message sets a constructive tone. Yet, Delhi remains vigilant, balancing optimism with historical lessons. A stable, inclusive Bangladesh serves India's strategic interests, from containing extremism to securing the Bay of Bengal. The coming months will reveal if this electoral shift heralds enduring partnership or familiar challenges.

Agencies