India's trade surplus with the United States stands poised to exceed $90 billion annually within a year, following the recent India-US trade agreement, as outlined in a fresh State Bank of India (SBI) report.

This projection stems from a robust up-tick in Indian exports coupled with enhanced import opportunities from the US. The report, released on 12 February 2026, underscores the deal's potential to reshape bilateral trade dynamics significantly.

The SBI analysis highlights that Indian exporters could ramp up shipments of their top 15 items to the US by approximately $97 billion within the next year. When factoring in additional product categories, total export potential might surpass $100 billion annually. This growth is attributed to tariff reductions, which the report describes as a "golden opportunity" for Indian firms to capture greater market share in the American marketplace.

Recent trade data provides a strong foundation for this optimism. India's surplus with the US reached $ 40.9 billion in FY25 and stood at $ 26 billion for April-December FY26. With the export momentum expected from the deal, the SBI anticipates the surplus will comfortably breach the $ 90 billion threshold on an annualised basis.

On the macroeconomic front, the report estimates a net positive impact of around 1.1 per cent on India's GDP. This boost arises from the combined effect of export expansion and moderated import cost savings. The asymmetry in current trade shares further amplifies the potential: the US accounts for about 20 per cent of India's exports but only 7 per cent of its imports, with services imports at a mere 15 per cent.

India emerges as an untapped market for US goods, with potential annual exports exceeding $ 50 billion (excluding services). Under the agreement, India has committed to eliminating or slashing tariffs on all US industrial products and a broad array of food and agricultural items. This includes a pledge to procure $ 500 billion worth of US goods over the next five years, potentially lifting imports by $ 55 billion.

Certain commodities already show substantial US penetration in India's import basket, ranging from 20 to 40 per cent, with expectations of further growth post-tariff cuts. Almonds exemplify this, where the US supplies 90 per cent of India's imports. Tariff reductions here alone could save India $100-150 million in foreign exchange, with overall duty savings estimated at $3 billion—and higher still when accounting for import substitution strategies.

The deal's structure favours Indian competitiveness, particularly against rivals like China and Vietnam facing higher US tariffs. This tariff differential bolsters India's edge in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems, and jewellery, alongside high-value areas like pharmaceuticals and electronics. Early indicators suggest exporters are already aligning strategies to exploit these openings.

While imports from the US rise modestly, the disproportionate export gains ensure a widened surplus beneficial to India. The SBI report cautions that realising full potential hinges on swift implementation and exporter agility. Nonetheless, it portrays the pact as a strategic win, enhancing India's global trade positioning amid evolving geopolitical currents.

Based On ANI Report