The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), under the leadership of Tarique Rahman, stands at a crossroads as Bangladesh approaches its general elections on 12 February 2026. With polls just hours away, the party's manifesto reveals a delicate balancing act in its approach to India, Bangladesh's powerful neighbour.

On one hand, the BNP pledges to foster improved ties with neighbouring countries, emphasising mutual growth and regional stability. This olive branch appears aimed at reassuring Delhi, which has long viewed the BNP with suspicion due to its historical alliances with Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami.

Yet, the manifesto quickly pivots to sharp criticism of India, accusing it of 'border killings' and 'push-ins'—incidents where Bangladeshi civilians have died or been forcibly repatriated at the shared frontier. "Since any attack on the people of Bangladesh is naturally unacceptable, strong measures will be taken to prevent all unfair activities," the document declares.

Geopolitical analysts in Dhaka and New Delhi puzzle over this duality. Is the BNP extending a hand of friendship, or issuing a veiled threat? The ambiguity seems deliberate, allowing the party to appeal to nationalist sentiments at home while keeping diplomatic channels open abroad.

Tarique Rahman's personal rhetoric adds another layer of complexity. The 60-year-old BNP chief, who returned from 17 years in exile in London only after Sheikh Hasina's ouster, has repeatedly branded her regime as corrupt and brutal. His homecoming coincided with Hasina's flight to India, where she remains under Delhi's protection.

The BNP manifesto echoes this stance overtly, rejecting revenge in favour of "a politics of justice and humanity." This is widely interpreted as a promise to pursue accountability for Hasina and her Awami League leaders, many of whom now languish in jail or have fled.

Hasina's downfall remains a fresh wound. Last year, a special Bangladeshi tribunal sentenced her in absentia to death for crimes against humanity during the 'July Uprising'—a student-led revolt that erupted in July 2024 and culminated in her government's collapse on 5 August. Indian support for Hasina has strained bilateral ties ever since.

Rahman's ascension to BNP leadership followed the death of his mother, Khaleda Zia, the party's matriarch and former prime minister. This generational shift comes as Jamaat-e-Islami, once a key BNP ally, positions itself as a fierce rival, fragmenting the opposition landscape.

Complicating the elections further is the 'Yunus Factor.' Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate heading the interim government, has urged voters to back a 'Yes' in the simultaneous referendum on his reform package, the 'July National Charter-2025'.

Unveiled on 17 October 2025 after consultations via the National Consensus Commission, the charter proposes sweeping changes to Bangladesh's political system. Yunus claims a 'Yes' vote will pave the way for a brighter future, framing it as a mandate for stability.

Critics, including legal experts, decry Yunus's overt campaigning as partisan overreach. With public funds footing the bill for the referendum—which offers voters a stark 'Yes' or 'No' choice—many argue it undermines the interim government's neutrality.

Jurists point out a deeper flaw: Bangladesh's constitution lacks any provision for such a referendum. Questions swirl over its legitimacy, with some calling it a bid by Yunus to entrench his influence amid the power vacuum left by Hasina.

For the BNP, the stakes are existential. Victory could mean extraditing Hasina from India to face justice, while mending—or hardening—border relations. Defeat might sideline Rahman, prolonging uncertainty.

India watches warily. Delhi's sheltering of Hasina has already drawn BNP ire, yet economic interdependence—trade, connectivity projects like the Maitri Setu bridge, and shared concerns over Rohingya refugees—demand pragmatism.

As ballot boxes open, Tarique Rahman's party craves the best of both worlds: Hasina's return for trial and cordial ties with India. Whether this tightrope walk succeeds will shape South Asia's geopolitics for years.

Agencies