One week into the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, President Donald Trump confronts mounting military, economic, and political hazards, according to a report by TOI.

Early successes, including devastating strikes on Iranian forces and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have failed to yield a swift resolution. Instead, the conflict has spiralled into a broader regional confrontation, evading Washington's grasp.

Analysts highlight a stark divergence from Trump's prior aversion to extended interventions. Operations like the January raid in Venezuela or the June assault on Iran's nuclear facilities were swift and contained. Iran, by contrast, promises a quagmire.

Laura Blumenfeld of Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies warns that Trump risks destabilising the global economy, upending regional order, and jeopardising Republican fortunes in the upcoming US midterms.

The administration's endgame remains opaque. Critics decry the absence of a defined victory condition, likening it to the ill-fated 2003 Iraq invasion—the largest US military endeavour since.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly counters that objectives are unambiguous: dismantle Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and production, eradicate its navy, sever proxy funding, and forestall nuclear ambitions indefinitely.

Domestically, Trump's MAGA supporters largely back the war, though fissures emerge among isolationists. Polls reveal wariness among independents, haunted by Iraq and Afghanistan debacles. Republican strategist Brian Darling notes the base's divide between no-war pledges and personal loyalty to Trump. With six US service members already lost, public tolerance may erode swiftly.

Trump's Time magazine remarks on potential homeland threats—"some people will die"—underscore the stakes. Former intelligence officer Jonathan Panikoff predicts casualties could force an early exit, precisely what Iran anticipates. Prolonged fighting might fracture the coalition underpinning the effort.

Regionally, escalation proliferates. Iran's reprisals have struck US, Israeli, and allied targets across the Middle East. Hezbollah in Lebanon has reignited its front against Israel, proving Tehran's proxy network endures despite decapitation strikes. This multi-front dynamic complicates containment.

Trump's rhetoric sows confusion on regime change. Initial hints at fomenting Iranian rebellion gave way to restraint, yet he has mused on handpicking a successor, urged Kurdish insurgents to rise, and demanded "unconditional surrender" online. Such signals risk alienating potential post-war partners.

Economic tremors loom largest via the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for one-fifth of global oil. Iran has choked tanker traffic, initially for all but later sparing non-Western vessels. Atlantic Council's Josh Lipsky flags this as an unanticipated US vulnerability. Pre-strike oil expertise was sidelined, blindsiding policymakers.

The campaign's $3.7 billion price tag in its first week, per CSIS estimates, balloons amid uncertainty. Trump floats a four-to-five-week timeline or "whatever it takes," but details on subsequent phases are scarce.

Gulf allies, hosting US bases, pledge support yet fret over blowback—UAE magnate Khalaf Al Habtoor decried the region as America's battlefield.

Trump may have misjudged Iran against the Venezuela template, where special forces seized Nicolás Maduro and oil assets with minimal drag. Iran's resilient institutions and hardline successors defy such parallels. Even Khamenei's elimination has not paralysed retaliation.

Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges praises tactical prowess but lambasts strategic voids. "Politically, strategically, and diplomatically, it seems not to have been thought through," he observes. Without a diplomatic off-ramp, battlefield edges may dissolve into attrition.

Gulf states' alignment masks deeper anxieties. Iranian drones and missiles have targeted them, binding them to Washington, but prolonged war invites retaliation. Regional powers eye the power vacuum, with proxies like Hezbollah filling gaps.

Iran's defiance—"take surrender dreams to the grave"—signals no quick capitulation. Hardliners may consolidate, mirroring post-Soleimani resilience. US-Israeli air dominance persists, yet ground commitments loom if proxies entangle forces.

For Trump, political calculus intensifies. Midterms loom, and war fatigue could punish Republicans. Allies like Israel push for total victory, but domestic hawks waver. A turning point nears: surge casualties or oil shocks could pivot sentiment overnight.

Globally, markets convulse. Oil spikes threaten recession, hitting US consumers hardest. Europe's energy bind and China's import reliance amplify pressure for de-escalation. Trump's gamble hinges on rapid proxy neutering, but Hezbollah's resurgence dashes that hope.

Strategically, the war tests US primacy. Iran's missile salvos expose defence gaps; proxies prove hard to excise. Without clear metrics—say, verified missile site destruction—victory slips away. Hodges' critique resonates: tactics triumph, strategy falters.

Early gains mask deepening perils. Trump seeks geopolitical reordering, but Iran's tenacity, regional contagion, and home-front limits threaten reversal. The path from strikes to surrender remains fraught, with stakes escalating hourly.

TOI