The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has released a comprehensive report on global arms transfers for the period 2021-25, highlighting stark trends in South Asia.

Pakistan emerges as Beijing's premier arms client, absorbing 61 per cent of China's total weapons exports despite the latter supplying 47 states worldwide. This dependency underscores the deepening Sino-Pakistani military alliance.

Pakistan's arms imports surged by 66 per cent between 2016-20 and 2021-25, elevating it from the tenth to the fifth largest global recipient. Accounting for 4.2 per cent of worldwide imports, Islamabad now sources approximately 80 per cent of its hardware from China, up from 73 per cent previously. This shift reflects Pakistan's strategic pivot amid economic constraints and regional tensions.

China's role as Pakistan's dominant supplier includes advanced systems such as fighter jets, submarines, and missile technology. The concentration of 61 per cent of Beijing's exports in one client signals a bespoke military partnership, potentially tailored to counterbalance India. SIPRI notes that this influx bolsters Pakistan's capabilities along the Line of Control.

India, ranked as the world's second largest arms importer with an 8.2 per cent global share, contrasts sharply with its neighbour. Tensions with both China and Pakistan drive New Delhi's procurement, including the brief armed clash in May 2025 where imported weapons featured prominently on both sides. As nuclear-armed adversaries, such escalations amplify regional risks.

Despite its high import volume, India's total arms inflows dipped by 4 per cent over the decade, attributable to burgeoning indigenous production. Initiatives under Atmanirbhar Bharat have yielded successes in missiles, artillery, and basic aircraft, though delays persist in complex platforms like fighters and submarines. This progress signals a maturing defence-industrial base.

India remains reliant on foreign suppliers for high-end systems, with recent orders encompassing up to 140 combat aircraft from France and six submarines from Germany. Such deals indicate sustained, if selective, external dependence. Procurement patterns have diversified away from traditional partners.

Russia's share in India's imports plummeted from 70 per cent in 2011-15 to 40 per cent in 2021-25, supplanted by Western and Israeli suppliers. France, Israel, and the United States now dominate, offering cutting-edge avionics, missiles, and radars. This realignment mitigates sanctions-related risks and aligns with interoperability goals for multinational operations.

SIPRI researcher Siemon Wezeman attributes Asia's armament surge to apprehensions over China's expanding military prowess. Beijing's intentions and capabilities spur neighbours to bolster defences, often via imports. In South Asia, India's purchases are inextricably linked to threats from China and its key proxy, Pakistan.

The 2025 India-Pakistan skirmish exemplifies these dynamics, with both sides deploying imported ordnance. Nuclear shadows loom large, yet conventional arms races persist. Pakistan's Chinese-sourced arsenal, including potentially hypersonic elements, heightens escalation potentials along shared borders.

Globally, the top five importers—Ukraine, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan—captured 35 per cent of transfers. The United States led exports at 42 per cent, followed by France (9.8 per cent) and a diminished Russia (6.8 per cent, down from 21 per cent). Europe's 33 per cent import share, the highest since the 1960s, stems from the Ukraine conflict and continental anxieties.

Asia and Oceania follow at 31 per cent, with West Asia at 26 per cent. These regional concentrations reflect geopolitical flashpoints. For India, balancing indigenous growth against import necessities will define its strategic posture amid a volatile neighbourhood.

Pakistan's near-total reliance on China poses long-term vulnerabilities, including technology transfer limitations and maintenance challenges. Beijing's export focus may also strain its industrial capacity if regional demands intensify. South Asia's arms spiral demands diplomatic interventions to avert crises.

As China's military modernisation accelerates, ripple effects will persist. India's diversification and self-reliance efforts offer a model, though execution hurdles remain. SIPRI's data serves as a clarion call for balanced regional security architectures.

ANI