The escalating conflict in West Asia, pitting Iran against Israel and the United States, shows no signs of abating, drawing in regional powers with profound strategic implications.

Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation with intricate ties across the Gulf, watches these developments with acute interest. Its newly formalised defence pact with Saudi Arabia has thrust Islamabad into a precarious position, potentially pulling it towards direct involvement.

In September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia inked the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), a pact declaring any attack on one signatory an assault on both. This framework promises coordinated defensive responses, though operational details remain opaque. The agreement underscores Riyadh's quest for reliable security guarantees amid rising Iranian assertiveness.

The pact's relevance crystallised on Tuesday when Pakistan's Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, referenced it publicly amid communications with Tehran. Speaking to reporters, Dar recounted a discussion with Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, emphasising, “I made them understand that we have a defence agreement.” This marked Islamabad's first overt linkage of the SMDA to the unfolding Iran war.

Dar's remarks extended to parliament, where he credited the pact with minimising missile and drone strikes on Saudi soil compared to other Gulf neighbours. He suggested Iran sought assurances that Saudi territory would not host anti-Iranian operations. While neither side has invoked the pact formally, its shadow looms large over the crisis.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal adds a grave dimension. Analysts speculate whether the SMDA implicitly extends Islamabad's nuclear umbrella to Riyadh, a notion unconfirmed by official channels. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons highlighted concerns from Chatham House experts, warning that the deal “sets a precedent for extended deterrence” outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Recent Iranian actions have tested Saudi resolve. Drones struck the US embassy in Riyadh on Tuesday, coinciding with Dar's statements. Warnings followed of imminent attacks on Dhahran, home to Saudi Aramco's vital energy infrastructure. A prior drone hit the Ras Tanura refinery complex on Monday, amplifying Gulf-wide alarms.

Saudi Arabia, initially neutral, vowed retaliation against further “flagrant behaviour.” Its state news agency affirmed Riyadh's right to “take all necessary measures” to safeguard security and interests. This shift followed Iran's direct strikes, upending Saudi efforts to bar its soil from US-Israeli operations against Tehran.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif conveyed solidarity to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a call, pledging full support without naming the SMDA explicitly. Tragically, a Pakistani citizen perished in an Iranian missile strike on Abu Dhabi, UAE, sharpening Islamabad's stakes.

Islamabad's response to the war blends caution and condemnation. Pakistan decried the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but stopped short of blaming the US or President Donald Trump—despite nominating him repeatedly for the Nobel Peace Prize. This restraint reflects diplomatic balancing.

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif struck a sharper tone on social media, decrying Israel's role in Islamic world's woes as “Zionist ideology” at work. He alleged a plot to extend Israeli influence to Pakistan's borders, uniting Afghanistan, Iran, and India against Islamabad. Asif urged vigilance against “eternal enemies.”

Pakistan grapples with its own frontier inferno. Cross-border clashes with Taliban forces in Afghanistan rage into a seventh day, prompting civilian evacuations amid shelling. Islamabad admits airstrikes on Afghan targets to neutralise militant launchpads, which the Taliban denies harbouring.

Rana Sanaullah, adviser to Sharif, claimed on Geo TV that most training centres lie destroyed, demanding Afghan guarantees against soil misuse. This dual-front strain complicates Pakistan's West Asian calculus.

Economic lifelines bind Pakistan to the Gulf. Over four million nationals toil there as labourers, their remittances bolstering a fragile economy. Any escalation risks these flows, while domestic politics weigh heavily—Pakistan's 40 million Shia Muslims could mobilise against anti-Iran stances.

A decade ago, Islamabad rebuffed Saudi pleas to join Yemen operations against Iran-backed Houthis, irking Gulf allies but preserving sectarian neutrality. The SMDA alters this dynamic, yet invocation remains elusive amid Pakistan's dilemmas.

Broader geopolitics intensify the pressure. Saudi Arabia's pact with Pakistan signals a pivot from US dependencies, amid Riyadh's nuclear ambitions whispered in defence circles. For Islamabad, honouring the SMDA could entangle it in a multi-front war, testing its conventional and nuclear thresholds.

Iran's missile and drone prowess—honed through proxies—poses asymmetric threats to Gulf infrastructure. Pakistan's experience with similar threats from India informs its caution, yet the SMDA demands solidarity.

India observes warily, given its own Saudi ties and Pakistan rivalry. New Delhi's neutral stance on the war belies concerns over nuclear proliferation and Pakistani adventurism.

Global powers manoeuvre accordingly. The US bolsters Israel while eyeing Gulf bases; Russia and China court Iran, potentially arming it further. Pakistan's alignment could reshape alliances.

Islamabad treads a razor's edge: fidelity to Saudi Arabia risks Iranian retaliation and domestic unrest, while inaction erodes credibility. The SMDA, once symbolic, now tests the nuclear state's resolve in a tinderbox region.

Agencies