by Shaumik Samar Ghosh

Athens and Sparta could have found a way out to resolve their differences but they couldn’t without going to war. When thought, political systems juxtapose with military strength, the latter becomes the sole choice if dominance is being sought. The Three Kingdom war kept China occupied between 220 and 280 AD after the Han dynasty ended. Up to 263 there seemed a somewhat tranquil arrangement between the 3 provinces of Cao Wei, Shu Han, and Eastern Wu but the same year the Wei’s Shu conquest, then usurpation of Cao Wei by Jin in 266 and ultimately the conquest of Wu by Jin in 280 made things awry once more.

Aristotle, Socrates, Pythagoras et al had definitive theories of the universe and planetary positioning but it wasn’t until Galileo Galilei championed his life long struggle about the actuality of heliocentric theories proposed by Copernicus, but no one believes you when you bust long established truths; all you earn is hatred and animosity. Galileo’s findings contradicted with the Biblical interpretations of how the universe looks and functions. A telescopic view of things opened up a new dimension. The scientist and polymath had to endure the treatment of a criminal. When Sputnik 1 was launched (the Earth could see itself) by Russia it triggered another sort of fierce technological race between rivals.

As Donald J. Trump took oath as the 47th President of the USA, he vowed to make America great once more. He began by letting go more than 1500 people involved in 2021’s Capitol ruckus, exiting the WHO as a large chunk of its funding comes from China – this is in context to the Coronavirus pandemic and it’s handling that became a devastating setback for the then Trump government. US has also officially exited the Paris Climate Agreement, ended birth right citizenship of migrants and most importantly proposed huge tariffs on many countries among many other straight & stringent decisions. There might be tariffs on India as well.

Since a century, the US has been trying to buy Greenland, albeit having an a military base there as leaders of the current dispensation like Vivek Ramaswamy were reminding citizens of 1776; stating the present situation of the US is akin to its independence struggle. Since 1867 they’ve been wanting to acquire Greenland, it kept trying thinking Denmark would relent as it did in 1917 with the Denmark’s West Indies.. The United States has long viewed Greenland as vital to its national security. Post the Second World War; it included Greenland amongst a prized strategic European asset in the Western Hemisphere to bolster its position in the face of an enemy attack.

Is China trying to acquire Taiwan albeit in a different way than Hong Kong? Taiwan based Indian broadcaster Suvam Paul defines the political situation in the island as a longstanding 3C problem- Complex, Confusion and Complicated. The senior journalist opines that historically Taiwan hasn’t been ruled by any foreign power. It’s rather an internal imbroglio between the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang, also called Guomindang. The former refuses to be ruled by Communist China but the latter doesn’t want to antagonize China. “At present, the Democratic Progressive Party is in power but Kuomintang has more members in the house, so it’s a difficult to decipher situation,” says Paul who also points out the fact that how Mandarin was forced on Taiwan, knowing the country has its own indigenous identity, culture & languages. As seen in this video, they tend to love Indian Cinema a lot.

South Asia being engulfed by Chinese dominance puts straight pressure on India, the rising power in the subcontinent. Massive protests against autocracy by Bangladesh’s Prime Minister saw the toppling of the Government, judges quitting their jobs which followed up with violence on minority communities.

This coup that came as a conundrum looked astutely engineered by powers that want to weaken India, as this paved way for stronger Pakistan – Bangladesh relations, both of whom have small economies, large debts, and minimal exports & are dependent on other countries for survival. The current adviser of Bangladesh is known for his work in microfinance and rural development schemes for which he won the Nobel Prize, but the situation in the country looks far from better as huge numbers of Bangladeshis continue to migrate to India – in search of a livelihood. How does India’s geopolitical trajectory look now?

Kishore Mandhyan, a senior politician with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) personifies multiversity. He has taught Environmental Policy, International Relations and Comparative Politics at Boston College, Tufts and Harvard. Harvard and Tufts rewarded him for ‘Excellence in Teaching’ and the man drafted several reports of the General Assembly and the Security Council on peace, security & sustainable development of the UN Secretary General. Not a man to mince his words Mandhyan is of the view that red tapism and internal politics has stifled India in many more ways than one can think. “Apart from Apple and Foxconn, which other corporations have shown any interest in doing business with India?” Bit resentful but highly observant the gentleman says that India’s economic, military and political frailty is because the discretionary scope of foreign policy is way too limited. “The BJP has tried to do its best but still India needs many years of structured change in many domains as international winds won’t stop blowing,” says the researcher and senior politician.

With the US remodeling its Geoeconomics, it has put into practice its decoupling and de-risking plans in place. India has been a long standing strategic partner of the US and the Indian PM not being invited for Trump’s inauguration made headlines in India. The powerful & growing South Asian country has a steady economic growth rate but still needs to do more if it has to confront China. Indian defense spending has increased but Author and media personality Lt. Col Jasinder Sodhi (Retd.) whose book ‘China’s War Clouds’ is being well received warns that India must be prepared for a two front war by the mid 2030’s. “China is ahead of India by 3 decades in military preparedness and if the weight age of Pakistan's military preparedness is added with China's, then it will be a big challenge for India in a two-front war with both these countries that is slated in 2035.”

The Indian army veteran also asserts that India needs to ramp up its military budget pointing out recent figures which is 1.9% of India’s GDP and must be to 3% of the GDP for the coming decade. He quotes Indian Philosopher & Political strategist Chanakya reminding that "From the state's treasury, flows the state's military might". If the world is planning to adapt to EV and Solar it means even more profit for China. India hence needs its own supply chains.

If history has a tendency of repeating itself then an alternate hypotheses can be drawn surrounding the circumstances that triggered the First World War. Had Duke Franz Ferdinand not been assassinated would the war have started? In all probability it would have as Imperialists and Nationalists had been long quarrelling over territory and supply chains. Diplomatic solutions couldn’t be sought. The alliances mismanaged and misinterpreted situations and going to the battlefields became inevitable. If Tolstoy’s idea of attaining the highest form of wisdom is true then recognizing burning problems – internal and external is essential for Governments and Rulers.

Shaumik Samar Ghosh is a defence and strategic analyst