Pakistan is experiencing a profound internal crisis under the leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, whose recent self-promotion following a military defeat by India has only underscored the fragility of his authority and the state itself. The crisis is multi-dimensional, spanning ethnic, political, economic, and security fronts, and is rapidly eroding the coherence of the Pakistani federation.
Balochistan: The Epicentre of Rebellion
Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province by area but historically marginalized, has re-emerged as the epicentre of resistance. The Baloch independence movement, spearheaded by groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), has escalated from sporadic attacks to high-profile operations such as the hijacking of the Jaffar Express train, which exposed the Pakistani state's inability to maintain control in the region.
The BLA’s recent declaration of independence and calls for international recognition are not mere propaganda; they reflect a significant administrative collapse, with reports that Pakistani security forces avoid venturing out in Quetta after dark. This unrest directly threatens Chinese interests, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as Baloch militants have repeatedly targeted Chinese nationals and infrastructure, undermining Beijing’s confidence in Islamabad’s ability to provide security guarantees.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Taliban Resurgence
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the resurgence of Taliban violence has further destabilized the region. The expulsion of over 150,000 Afghan refugees by Munir in late 2023 strained relations with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and fueled cross-border militancy. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues to mount attacks, exploiting the vacuum left by weak governance and the army’s overstretch. Munir’s hardline approach, including military strikes into Afghan and Iranian territory, has failed to stem the tide of violence and has instead deepened Pakistan’s regional isolation.
Sindh: Water Wars And Ethnic Tensions
Sindh is now boiling over due to acute water disputes with Punjab, exacerbated by India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following recent hostilities. The province’s canal projects on the Indus River have sparked violent protests, as Sindhis view the water crisis as existential. The internal mismanagement of water resources, combined with external shocks, is pushing inter-provincial tensions toward open conflict, threatening the unity of the federation.
Punjab: Munir’s Last Bastion
Munir’s authority appears increasingly confined to Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous and politically powerful province. His consolidation of power has relied on purging dissent within the military and judiciary, extending his own tenure, and sidelining civilian institutions. However, this militarization of governance has alienated large segments of the population, especially the youth, and has failed to address the root causes of unrest in the peripheries.
Economic Meltdown And Desperate Measures
Economically, Pakistan is on the brink. Foreign exchange reserves are dangerously low, inflation is rampant, and the IMF’s support is insufficient to stabilize the economy. In desperation, the government is pursuing unorthodox measures, such as attempting to turn Islamabad into a crypto hub through questionable partnerships, but these gambits have little credibility and reflect the depth of the crisis.
Can The US Or China Save Pakistan?
Historically, Pakistan’s military elite have relied on external patrons—first the US, now increasingly China—to bail out the state in times of crisis. However, the current situation is testing the limits of this strategy.
China’s patience is wearing thin due to persistent attacks on its nationals and projects in Balochistan, while the US is wary of deeper involvement given Pakistan’s internal dysfunction and continued use of terrorism as state policy. Munir’s rumoured outreach to Washington for support in Balochistan signals desperation rather than confidence. No foreign aid package, whether from China’s yuan or Western financial institutions, can compensate for the deep structural fractures within Pakistan’s state and society.
Conclusion: A State On The Brink
Pakistan’s greatest threat is not external—neither India, the BLA, the TTP, nor water wars—but the rigidity and predatory nature of its own state structure. The army’s addiction to power has paralyzed civil institutions, deepened ethnic fault lines, and left the country vulnerable to fragmentation. As Pakistan implodes from within, the prospect of salvation by foreign powers appears increasingly remote. The crisis under Asim Munir’s watch is not just a leadership failure; it is a systemic unravelling that no external actor is likely to reverse.
